April 14, 2024


All the bubbles disappear. This one is no exception.

I’m sorry, but this market is getting more and more ridiculous (and I say this as someone whose risk-on signals have been driven by exposure to equities for the last 3 weeks).

Blowout job data!

Did we forget that economists have revised each initial jobs report for several months?

Incredible Bull Market!

Did we forget that 84% of the stocks in the Russell 3000 are still trading below their respective 2021 peaks?

No credit events!

Have we forgotten that we have trillions of dollars of debt that need to be refinanced from this year to the next?

AI is the next industrial revolution

Are we ignoring that today’s AI is more advanced regression analysis than was being done years before ChatGPT?

I understood. I said early last year that there would be a bearish rally in 2023, but a credit event was likely at the end of the year due to the delayed effects of the fastest rate hike cycle in history. Of course, I was wrong with my timing. But how can you deny how different the market is from the narrative when looking deeper beneath the surface?

A lot of people have made a killing with Magnificent 7 stocks. My problem isn’t making other people’s money. My problem is that most stocks are still underperforming. According to FactSet, the combined market capitalization of the Magnificent 7 is larger than the entire stock market of every single country except the United States.

Bottom-line

After all, how will any of these end? How is this a bull market, when literally the entire world is celebrating the widening wealth gap between mega-cap technology stocks and nearly every single public company in existence?

I still think we’re all in a lot of trouble, and time will prove my original analysis (to a large extent) correct. All the bubbles disappear. This one is no exception.

At the date of publication, Michael Gayed did not hold (directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, subject to InvestorPlace.com Publication Guidelines,

The Lead-Lag Report is provided by Lead-Lag Publishing, LLC. All opinions and views mentioned in this report constitute our judgment as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time. The information in this material is not intended to be used as the primary basis for investment decisions and should not be construed as advice that meets the particular investment needs of any individual investor. The trading signals produced by Lead-Lag Reports are independent from other services provided by Lead-Lag Publishing, LLC or its affiliates, and the status of accounts under their management may vary. Please remember that investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and past performance may not be indicative of future results. Lead-Lag Publishing, LLC, its members, officers, directors and employees expressly disclaim all liability with respect to actions taken based on any or all information in this writing. Michael A. Gayed is the publisher of The Lead-Lag Report and a portfolio manager at Tidal Financial Group, an investment management firm specializing in ETF-focused research, investment strategies and services designed for financial advisors, RIAs, family offices and investment managers. Keeps. InvestorPlace readers who are new subscribers to Lead-Lag Report can get a 30% discount.

Source: investorplace.com

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