September 27, 2023
Travelers stock is undervalued

Travelers stock (NYSE: TRV) has lost 13% YTD, while the S&P500 index has gained 16% over the same period. Furthermore, it is currently trading at around $163 per share, which is 15% below its fair value of $193 – Trefis estimates. passenger evaluation,

Interestingly, Travelers stock had a Sharpe ratio of 0.3 Since the beginning of 2017, which is less 0.6 for the S&P 500 index over the same period. It is compared to 1.28 sharp For Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio. Sharpe is a measure of return per unit of risk, and high-performance portfolios can provide the best of both worlds.

The insurance giant posted mixed results in the second quarter of 2023, with revenue in line with expectations but earnings falling short. It reported an 11% year-on-year increase in total revenues to $10.1 billion, primarily driven by a 14% increase in net written premiums. Specifically, net written premiums increased due to an 18% increase in commercial insurance and a 13% increase in personal insurance units. On the cost front, claims expense as a % of revenue saw an adverse increase from 92.8% to 100.5% in the quarter due to catastrophe losses. Overall, it resulted in a net loss of $14 million, compared with net income of $551 million in the year-ago period.

The company’s top line for the first half of fiscal 2023 is expected to grow 10% year-on-year to $19.8 billion. This was primarily due to a 13% increase in net written premium figures, followed by a 2% increase in net investment income. On the other hand, claims and expenses increased as a percentage of revenues over the same period, hurting the bottom line – net income declined 39% year-over-year to $961 million.

Going forward, we expect to see some improvement in net investment income in the next quarters. overall, passenger revenue It is projected to reach $39.4 billion in fiscal year 2023. Additionally, TRV’s adjusted net income is expected to be approximately $2.8 billion for the year. This combined with annual GAAP EPS of $12.24 and a P/E multiple of just below 16x would yield a valuation of $193.

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