Punxsutawney Phil predicted a colder winter in 2005. Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)
Each year in early February a meteorological competition is held at Gobblers Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. A groundhog named Phil is the star of the show. Punxsutawney Phil is a combination of a folk hero and weather forecaster. If he sees his shadow, we’ll get six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, we should get an early spring. But just how right is Phil?
Punxsutawney Phil came out of a cold-weather nap Friday with a little help from his handlers and immediately failed to see his reflection. According to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, which manages Phil and his Groundhog Day exploits, that means early spring for 2024.
It is the job of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to keep track of weather and seasonal changes. NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information spent some time investigating Phil’s weather predictions. It’s not pretty.
NCEI shared a graphic on X that highlights Phil’s work over the past decade. The agency took a dig at Phil’s lack of college degrees, but acknowledged that he is “pretty sweet”. If the past 10 years are anything to go by, Phil would probably want to enroll in Meteorology 101.
NCEI compared Phil’s predictions to US national temperature records. Phil has been correct about early spring or long winter only 30% of the time over the last 10 years. They made the right call in 2014, 2016 and 2020. It is too early to say whether his prediction of early spring 2024 will come true.
The graphic provides a comprehensive view of Phil’s work since 1887. He has seen his shadow, the harbinger of a long winter, 107 times. The burrowing mammal failed to see its reflection only 20 times. There are 10 years in this long history – including the period from 1891 to 1897 – when no predictions were recorded. With so few predictions of an early spring, it makes 2024 a rare one for Groundhog Day. This gives anyone tired of winter a reason to rejoice today.
Phil may be the most famous animal weather forecaster in the country, but he’s not the only one. There are other groundhogs in other states, as well as aardvarks, quahogs, and ducks that have similar jobs. Here’s how his predictions turned out this year.
NOAA acknowledges the difficulties of predicting winter weather across the U.S. “Predicting the arrival of spring for an entire country – especially in a country with such diverse regional climates as the United States – is not easy,” the agency said. Said in the Groundhog Day explainer. Phil’s predictions may come true for some parts of the country and fail in other areas. This is what happened in 1887 during the groundhog’s first prediction of a long winter.
Phil’s accuracy issues don’t really matter to what he says about Groundhog Day. In Punxsutawney it is a huge festival event filled with music, ceremonies and tourism dollars. Phil’s annual forecast is either a ray of hope or mildly disappointing, depending on how you feel about winter and spring. It’s a topic of conversation and a way for people across the country to connect with an adorable mammal that has achieved legendary status.
Ultimately, it doesn’t matter whether Punxsutawney Phil gets it right or not. Spring will still come. Ultimately.
