April 14, 2024
MSI: The growing role of clean ammonia in marine and energy markets

According to Maritime Strategies International the role of alternative fuels in powering a low-carbon economy will dramatically increase the amount of renewable ammonia, which will be more than offset by the increased amount of renewable methanol.

As noted, the next 25 years are likely to see a transformation of the ammonia trade with clean ammonia, creating new demand for around 400 very large gas carriers compared to the current fleet of 375 focused on carrying LPG.

In contrast, although the need for around 215 methanol carriers will be significant, this compares to a total methanol-capable fleet of 35,000dwt and upwards of 280 at the end of 2023.

Despite facing high costs and safety issues, clean ammonia’s role as a potential marine bunker fuel, hydrogen carrier for use in power generation and industry feedstock has solidified its place in the green transition, especially for high volume use. Have done.

This marks a remarkable change for an industry focused on fertilizer production, driven by energy markets. Future volumes of clean ammonia (blue and green) are set to dwarf the existing gray trade. The emerging industry is projected to achieve clean exports in the region of around 30 million tonnes by 2030 and could reach 300 million tonnes by 2050.

As noted, clean methanol production is also growing rapidly, driven by agreements for methanol as a marine fuel, its use as a chemical feedstock, and its role in the broader hydrogen economy.

Sharing similar drivers, clean methanol trade is projected to be significantly smaller than ammonia, with around 15 million tonnes of product traded in 2030, of which 9 million tonnes will be green. Global clean methanol trade is expected to grow to 100 million tonnes by 2050 – equivalent to one third of the clean ammonia trade volume.

Despite MSI’s model showing a relatively slow start for the clean methanol trade, year-on-year growth is expected from 2026 and the consultancy estimates that exports will account for 40% of the projected gray methanol trade by 2030.

Hydrogen trade prospects are rapidly evolving but are still theoretical and projections produced by bodies such as the IEA and the Hydrogen Council provide a wide range of possible outcomes.

..says the article’s author, MSI Director Stuart Nicol.

Source: safety4sea.com

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