September 27, 2023
Eli Lilly Stock Will Win Big If the Weight-Loss Drug Market Hits 0 Billion

JP Morgan analysts said Eli Lilly could reach $50 billion in annual sales of weight-loss drugs by 2030, making the pharmaceutical company one of the big winners in obesity treatment.

The bank’s analysts raised their sales estimates, saying that over time the total market for weight loss drugs could reach $100 billion in annual sales. Eli Lilly (ticker: LLY) and Denmark’s Novo Nordisk (NOVO) “are expected to continue to broadly segment the market,” he said. JPMorgan also sees an even split between the obesity market and the diabetes market for those sales.

A class of drugs known as incretins has been shown to be helpful in suppressing appetite and reducing food intake. JPMorgan expects its growing portfolio to grow Lilly’s sales from $8 billion last year to $23 billion in 2025 and $34 billion in 2027, and to reach $50 billion in 2030.

,[We] It would not be surprising to see further increases in our estimates,” he said.

Lilly is the leader in this area — its Monjaro drug approved for diabetes crushed sales estimates in the second quarter. It has another version containing the same active ingredient tirzepetide, which is expected to be approved for obesity later this year.

JP Morgan analysts said obesity approval for Monjaro/tirzepetide was one of several key catalysts for the stock later this year and into early 2024. He has an Overweight rating on Eli Lilly stock with a price target of $600, which indicates upside of 7%. From Wednesday’s price.

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Novo Nordisk became Europe’s most valuable company earlier this week, overtaking luxury group LVMH (MC.Paris) after its weight loss drug Vegovy was made available in the UK. The Danish company now has a market capitalization of $432 billion, which has outpaced its size. Denmark’s economy.

Vegovy, approved as an obesity treatment, has the same active ingredient as Ozempic, which is approved for type 2 diabetes.

In the US, it would be the 14th most valuable company in the S&P 500, between UnitedHealth and Walmart.

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Eli Lilly, currently the ninth most valuable, has a market cap of $531 billion.

Write to Callum Keown at [email protected]


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