September 27, 2023
Bitcoin Drops Earlier Than Expected, Will Things Get Worse in September?

Benjamin Cowen, analyst and founder of Into the Cryptoverse, believes that bitcoin could continue its downtrend in September ahead of next year’s halving. Pointing to the coin’s performance and comparing it to bitcoin’s performance over the past few years, the analyst predicts doom for the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin is trading at around $25,860 and has been under pressure over the past few weeks after surging nearly 60% from its November 2022 low following the collapse of FTX and the bankruptcies of several centralized finance (CEFI) lending platforms such as BlockFi. The decline was rapid. , the coin pulled back from its July 2023 peak when it rose to around $31,800.

Will September Be Tough For BTC Bulls?

After an impressive performance in July, the bears clawed back all the gains in August. By the end of the month, bitcoin was down nearly 20% from its July high of 203, with losses on August 17 causing fear across the board.

in his Analysis, Cowen noted that the coin fell 11.31% in August, which is slightly below the average of the previous two prior-half years, when the average return for that month was down 11.71%. However, his September forecast for BTC looks hazy.

Citing data, the analyst said prices continued to shrink throughout September before the halving. The average return in September before the bitcoin halving was -17.29%. Therefore, if the same situation persists and bitcoin follows the same trend, the coin is likely to drop further to $21,400 by the end of this month.

Related Reading: Make or Break: Bitcoin’s Fate Hangs on the Edge of 200-Week EMA

On the “bright” side, if bitcoin’s performance in September over the previous two halvings is taken into account, the average return was -5.66%, meaning that BTC, although bearish, could drop to around $24,400 by the end of the year. . month. This assessment implies that if the historical performance pans out, BTC could move further down in the coming weeks.

Which way for bitcoin?

Bitcoin supporters are bullish over the medium to long term. Despite the sharp drop on August 17, which pushed the coin to a new H2 2023 low of around $25,200, a modest correction in the second half of August and the first week of September could dampen bullish hopes. Judging by the price movement, bitcoin is not out of trouble just yet.

From the daily chart, BTC price is inside the bear candlestick of August 17, which is the main anchor bar that defines the current price action. In addition, although the price is relatively high, the trading volume is relatively small.

Bitcoin price on 7 September. Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

For a fresh recovery, proponents are counting on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). This derivative product will allow institutions to gain exposure, deploy capital and potentially increase demand for BTC.

Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView


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